I made a video. Rather than the usual written blog, I’ve had a go at talking over some pictures. I want to get across why climate change so unnerves me.
In a nutshell, it is because we are forcing the climate of the world out of its natural pattern and into something new and unknown. And when people do try to figure out what we are letting ourselves in for, it is mostly bad news.
Anyway, see if this video does it for you.
A few weeks ago, I wrote a post comparing fracking, wind and nuclear as potential sources of domestic energy for the next few decades. This video of Kevin Anderson has me pretty convinced now, that fracking is a bad idea.
At the time of writing the comparison post, I was not convinced – I thought a combination of all would probably be the way to go. With the revelation that fracking would only really take off after 2020, when we need to be well on the way down the emissions lowering trajectory, I realise that fracking cannot form part of the energy mix if we are serious about keeping to a 2 degree or lower temperature rise.
Watch the video yourself, let me know what you think.
John Bell,
Ordinary Bloke
A few weeks ago, I put a survey up on this website to find out what you think about climate change. 85% of you think recent changes are predominantly man-made, but a small number thought it was definitely, 100% natural.
For those who said recent climate change is natural, the survey took a different path. There was not much point asking people how bad they think climate change is if they don’t think man has anything to do with it.
I asked what you thought the cause of climate change was, if it wasn’t humans.
Given the options of “Nothing – the globe is not warming”, “Sun-spots”, “Volcanoes”, “Natural cycles other than the above”, “No-one knows for sure” and “Other”, every single one went for “Natural cycles other than above”.
Well, that’s not strictly true, one person went for Other – “Natural cycles, including Sun-spots, Volcanoes and gravitational shifts within the earth core”.
They were all very certain about it not being humans. If you are reading this, please do contact me or return my email and let me know why makes you so certain.
The survey effectively ended there for these people. There is nothing more to say.
For the rest of you, though, there was much more to find out. As concluded by a recent RSA report, it is not the small minority of deniers that need to be convinced to act, it is those who do accept man-made global warming, but choose not to do anything about it.
John Bell,
Ordinary bloke
What would the world look like if we fairly distributed the land to where the people live? Or if the more well off could buy land abroad and move it home? Well, you can!
I was going to write about the results of the survey, but it has proved to be quite popular, and so I will allow more results to come in beforehand.
Instead, I’ll introduce you to a website, the Carbon Map, I came across that allows you to resize the countries by population and wealth.
Of course, if I’m writing about it, there is more to it than that. You can also size countries by the amount of fossil fuels they extract, or the emissions for which they are responsible, both now and historically.
I think the picture below illustrates my point that the poorest countries, less able to cope with the scourge of a changing climate, have hardly any emissions, compared with the highest emitting countries, which are also the richest.
If emissions are going to come down quickly enough, we need to address that inequity. The richer countries, and the people in the richest countries, need to reduce our emissions. The only way we can do that quickly enough is if we reduce our energy use.
On a related note, here’s a little video showing other information about the decades to come on a revolving globe:
John Bell,
Ordinary bloke
Greenpeace, you stole my thunder! I had it all planned out. Father Christmas lives at the North Pole, the ice cap is melting: great idea for a blog post I thought. And then I get a video from Santa via Greenpeace complaining about the rising damp, and the sodden rug is pulled from under my feet.
So, I’m reduced to adding a little context and my own spin on the idea.
There are a few seemingly wildly different estimates as to when the Arctic will be ice-free and Santa will need to find somewhere else to live. The 2007 report from the IPCC put the year at 2070, whereas studies are now indicating it could be 20-30 years from now, and some are saying it could be around the time of the next UK general election. The rate of decrease of Arctic ice has been quicker than had been predicted, some due to the albedo effect, others due to soot.
This dramatic reduction in Arctic ice has led to the heavy rains and heatwaves we’ve seen in the northern hemisphere. But things are altogether more serious for Santa.
So, what are we going to say to those kids who have been brought up thinking Santa lives in the North Pole? We’d have to make a choice between telling them he’s not real, or saying he’s moved. Apparently the North Pole was his traditional hang-out from around the latter half of the 19th century. But he also had reindeer at that time, which can’t graze at the North Pole, so he moved to Finnish Lapland in 1925.
So, I guess we’ll just be saying he lives in Lapland. Not so bad after all.
Although I’m sure he’d be disappointed to see his old home melt away. “When I was a lad, all this used to be ice”, he’ll be saying.
Well, I have a message for you, Mr Claus. If you don’t want your old home to melt, I suggest 1) you stop buying masses of plastic rubbish for a load of spoiled kids, including my own, and 2) you share the secret of your faster-than-light travel so we can get around without the pollution – assuming all that glitter and the tinkling bells are low carbon.
I’ll leave you with Jim Carter looking scary in a basement.
John Bell,
Ordinary bloke
PS – thank you for all the survey responses. Still time to let me know what you think. I’ll collate it all for a future post or two.
I’d like to ask a favour of you. I need two minutes of your time. I feel I have a decent idea of the sort of people who read this blog. But I’m not really sure what you think.
So, I’ve created a simply survey, with a handful of questions, for you to tell me. It works from a mobile or a computer, and takes only a couple of minutes to complete. Will you complete it for me please?
I’m not going to draw wild conclusions from the results about the state of the world. The sample won’t be representative of the population. I hope it will give me an idea of where you are with your thinking about the subjects of my blog.
Thank you very much indeed in advance. I look forward to seeing the results flooding in.
John Bell
Ordinary Bloke
We’ve got too much. Our children are being brought up in a world of plenty. It’s really difficult to stop the house getting piled up with mounds of plastic toys and games. They’re getting spoilt; we’re getting spoilt. I’m just as guilty of this as anyone else.
All of this convenience is false. It is by using the energy trapped in fossil fuels, built up over millions of years, and on the backs of the poorest, most destitute people in the world that our luxurious, care-free lives are built. We’re merely using up our natural reserves, not really generating much that is new.
It is bad for us now; it is sickening for the poor and terrible for the future of the planet. We have to stop.
And as we get more unused to the real effort of staying alive, we will find it more and more difficult to be able to cope if we stop using this natural capital and the poor of the world stop doing our dirty work.
To really understand what we are doing to ourselves and our children, I looked up the medical definition of what it is to be spoilt. Spoiled Child Syndrome means indulging in excessive, self-centred and immature behaviour.
This can be a problem into adulthood. People might have trouble waiting for that thing that they want now, such as a snack, new gadget or clothes. They might have trouble coping with criticism, controlling their temper, maintaining professionalism and personal relationships.
But hang on, doesn’t that characterise western society? Divorce rates are increasing, although they have dropped off since 2000 due to people marrying later and co-habiting more before marriage and the number of people getting married in the first place has been dropping off. Obesity and fatness is rising across the population.
I find it difficult to stop myself gorging on all of the biscuits in the tin. It is always tempting to just sit in front of the telly and eat. People complain at the price of food, but it’s never been lower. We do everything we can to avoid expending any effort, such as by driving round the corner for a pizza or ordering one in. We can get any thrill at the touch of a button. It takes more and more to get us excited, which leads us to create and watch sickening violence in films such as Saw just to keep an inane smile on our faces.
To get out of this cycle has to start with number one. I’ve got to train myself to recognise the indulgent cravings and lead by example, particularly for the sake of my children who copy everything I do. I can spot the greed in the small things, when I quicken slightly and fumble when making a cup of tea, with the biscuit tin in the back of my mind. It’s at these points that I need to intervene in my curtailed freedom of will, and deliberately slow myself down and ration myself. I can slowly start to gain control of my life.
I’ll need to put more effort into really growing my own food and getting connected with where it comes from. I’ll continue to get around by using my body walking and cycling, rather than driving, where I can.
As I persevere I hope it will rub off on my children, and allow them to be free and balanced. If I am successful at it, maybe others watching on will be able to break free as well.
Does this strike a chord? Or does it not make sense to you? What are you going to do about it?
John Bell,
Ordinary bloke
Energy prices are high, it’s a nuisance. They’re not going to come down. But, if you want to reduce your gas & electricity bill, there is way. I’ll show you how, after I’ve let off some steam.
The other day I was hearing some MP or other going on about how people have no control over their energy bills. Any changes to prices mean people have to find the money to pay up, from another part of their budget. Rubbish – we have direct control over our gas & electricity bills. Who is switching on the lights or the telly?
That is not to say that there are no people who have the lights off most of the time and are wrapped up in duvets or jumpers all winter so they can afford to eat. People in that situation need proactive help to insulate their homes and reduce their costs.
People who are not in such dire straits do have control. It is very tempting to blame the energy companies or the government, and they probably do deserve a bit of a verbal kicking, but that doesn’t mean you are helpless. I saved 30-40% on my gas and electricity bills just by changing my habits.
I’ve listed here a few things you could do. It’s not comprehensive – I challenge everyone reading this to add their own idea as a comment at the bottom, so we build up a fantastic list of energy and money-saving ideas.
If you have a little cash to spare, for example if you budgeted for the yearly energy bill and have some of that money available:
If you need some advice, get in touch with your local Transition Town, who are very likely to be able to help. They may have or know of people trained to give advice. They may have access to a thermal imaging camera to find out where you are leaking heat, or to a device to check how air tight your house is.
John Bell,
Ordinary bloke
We want electricity. What is the best way to get it? This post is an attempt to summarise objectively three of the most controversial options – nuclear, fracking and wind power. It will be controversial. It is not intended to be the last word on the matter, rather to start the conversation.
This is a slightly unusual post. I’ll update the content if new evidence arrives. Let me know if you have any.
| Nuclear | Fracking | Wind Power | |
| Cost (source: US energy information administration) | $0.108/kWh | $0.065/kWh($0.075-$0.113/kWh inc. costs of climate change, after discounting the value of the future & ignoring e.g. tipping points & human impact)
Forecast to ~triple by 2030, to about $0.19/kWh excl. costs of climate change. |
$0.086/kWh (onshore); $0.222/kWh (offshore)(forecast to reduce by 20-30% by 2030, to $0.06-0.07/kWh for onshore and $0.15-0.17/kWh for offshore) |
| Time | 42-60 months, excluding planning; lasts 30-40 years. | Drilling time plus 2 months to frack; Produces gas for about 10 years. | 2 months, excluding planning; lasts about 20-25 years |
| Space | Relatively small, but needs to be sited near the sea. | 2580-3000 wells would be required to produce 9bcm (billion cubic metres) per year of gas from shale, which would require 830-970 square km…but production drops rapidly after the first couple of years. That’s about 93 GWh per square KM per annum, excluding the power plant and roads / transport.(the feature image above is Texas fracked) | If I’ve done my maths correctly, taking the numbers from David Mackey’s Sustainable Energy without the Hot Air, we’re looking at 26.3 GWh per square KM per annum |
| Legacy | Nuclear waste needs to be stored somewhere safe for hundreds of years, creating a life no-go area – although that could be a long way underground. Doesn’t make sense to shoot it into space, in case the rocket explodes. | CO2 equivalent emissions about 40-50% less than coal, a few percentage points above natural gas (i.e. about 410-480 gCO2eq/kWh), because of the methane released during construction. It’s still contributing to climate change.There will be a big hole and a load of chemicals underground when you’re done. | None – when they’re done with, you take them down and you wouldn’t know they’d been there.(see pictures below) |
| Other Downsides | The waste products are deadly and could be turned into a terrorist bomb.They cannot be quickly started up or slowed down, so the power they produce needs to be first on the grid. | Water use – fracking requires 9,000 to 29,000 m3 per well fresh water, just when water is becoming scarce.The gas needs to be transported to a power station to be turned into electricity. | Some find the turbines to be unsightly. This is subjective.The power they produce is not predictable, so needs to be the first on the grid. |
| Myths | It’s not particularly unsafe – when it goes wrong, it really goes wrong, and this skews people’s view on nuclear safety. It does go wrong, though. | Water contamination – this isn’t a big deal with good construction.Earthquakes – they’re mostly tiny. But if fracking goes on near existing faults then larger earthquakes are possible – and we don’t know where all the faults are. So lots of care needed plus detailed surveys. | Birds – I heard a story about a community scattering dead birds around turbines so they could check that the person employed to clear up the carcasses was doing his job.They don’t generate much electricity / use more than required to power them – of course not, otherwise why would companies be investing in putting them up? |
So, how do you want your electricity generated? To me, it really comes down to whether you think the short-lived appearance of windmills on the landscape is worse than the longer-term impacts of climate change from burning gas, and whether or not you value the future in your decision.
Of course, there is another option. You could use less electricity.
John Bell,
Ordinary bloke
Wind Turbines nr Addingham, Yorkshire – unsightly?
And after they were removed – hardly a trace
10,000 feared dead, millions thirsty on the streets. Now, while you sit at work bored. Or cosy at home. I’m not claiming climate change is the cause. But it is a taste of what’s to come.
Forget for a minute what caused Haiyan to be the most severe storm ever to make landfall. There are people out there who need our help. I have chosen Christian Aid, partly because they were the first to contact me for help, and partly because I know some people who work there. I value their approach of helping people to help themselves, rather than simply giving hand-outs. I fear in this case that the shattered people of the Philippines need all the help they can get.
Whatever your reason, be it your humanity, religion or whatever else, please give as generously as you can afford.
Haiyan may not have been caused by global warming. It may not have been made more severe by climate change. It is impossible to prove. Proof would require finding which molecules of air were heated by sunlight that failed to escape our atmosphere due to excess carbon dioxide.
But you may have heard the analogy. I guess it was invented by an American, because it refers to baseball. Baseball players hit home runs occasionally. Like all other human beings, they have a natural trace of steroids in their system. Say a player starts taking steroids as a supplement: the levels of the substance in their system will go up by a small amount. If they then hit another home run, would you be able to say that they only hit it because of the extra steroids? There would be no way you could prove it. Would you ban them for cheating? Of course you bloody would.
The same goes for extreme weather, climate change and levels of greenhouse gases. It is almost impossible to prove any direct link, but you can note the trends and forecasts. The next step is to ban the substance.
Whether or not Haiyan was caused by climate change, its like is what scientists forecast will happen more often. It is a taste of things to come. It is why I am fighting climate change. It is why I am reducing my carbon footprint. It is why I think you should too. Please.
Does that make me an alarmist? I’m just an ordinary bloke, saying what I see.
John Bell,
Ordinary bloke
John Bell vs Climate Change (currently 15,148-155 to Climate Change) 